The first FC 27 crash: panic selling, not packs

Less than a week in, the FC 27 market had its first real crash. TheFutAccountant went through what caused it and what he is buying into it. The video, then the short version:

What actually caused the fall

• Domino selling. A few cards slipped, people read that as the crash starting, and sold to get ahead of it. The selling itself is what pushed prices down.
• Waiting for Friday. With new content and possible store packs coming, buyers held their coins. Demand thinned out while supply kept arriving.
• The move to meta cards. Attention shifted to the new high-stat cards, and squads were sold off to raise coins for them. Yesterday's popular card is the one that gets dumped.

Note what is missing from that list: a big EA pack promo. This one was players selling into each other.

When the recovery is expected

His call is Thursday, when Division Rivals rewards land. Rewards are a coin injection - hundreds of thousands of players suddenly have coins and go squad building the same evening. That demand is what lifts prices, and it lifts the cards people actually buy first.

What he is buying into the dip

• Popular cards between 20k and 75k coins. That is the band a player with fresh Rivals rewards can afford: cheap enough to buy in volume, good enough to be wanted.
• Early Team of the Week cards, holographics included. Fewer people are playing this early, so TOTW 1 informs stay genuinely scarce, and SBCs later in the year that demand Inform cards have nowhere else to pull from.
• And the half people skip: do not panic sell the squad you already own at the bottom of a dip.

Also this week: TOTW 2 arrives with several headline names, and EA shipped patch 1.01, which he describes as small bug fixes rather than a gameplay change. Nothing in it moves the market by itself.

Running this in ABFut

• Check whether it is the market or your card. The Market tab shows Index 100 with its chart plus the day's biggest risers and fallers. If the whole index is down, one card falling is not news about that card.
• Read the chart before you buy the dip. The player page shows the live lowest BIN, recent lows and the price history for console and PC. A card near the bottom of its own range is a better buy than one that has merely fallen off a spike.
• Buy the band, not one card. For the 20k-75k idea, set a buy-now filter per card with a hard maximum and a low purchase limit, so a sudden dip does not turn into forty cards you cannot move.
• Be running when rewards land. Thursday evening is the busy window: start the session and leave the phone to it, the scan keeps going in the floating window.
• Selling into the recovery is the sell price on each filter; the estimated profit already has EA's 5% tax removed.

Prices do what they want. ABFut automates the searching, bidding and relisting at the limits you choose. It does not forecast the market, and no dip is guaranteed to bounce.